# Demographics and FX Funding Fronts

*Motivated by An & Huber (2026), NBER WP 34908*

## Test 1: Demographic Distance and Funding Front Alignment

| Test | Value | N | p-value |
|------|-------|---|---------|
| Corr |ΔZ₁| vs realloc_exposure | -0.053 | 28 |  |
| Corr |ΔOADR| vs realloc_exposure | -0.023 | 28 |  |
| Mean |ΔZ₁| competitors | 0.702 | 9 |  |
| Mean |ΔZ₁| cooperators | 0.667 | 19 |  |
| T-test |ΔZ₁| comp vs coop | t=0.18 | 28 | 0.859 |
| OLS β(|ΔZ₁|) on exposure | -0.0031 | 28 | 0.790 |
| OLS R² | 0.003 | 28 |  |

## Test 2: Projected Geoeconomic Power Shifts

| Country | Power 2024 | Power 2030 | Power 2040 | Power 2050 | ΔOADR 2024→2050 | Fiscal Pressure (pp GDP) |
|---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------------|--------------------------|
| USA | 44.0% | 44.0% | 44.7% | 45.0% | +10.5 | +9.4 |
| DEU | 19.0% | 18.6% | 18.2% | 18.3% | +17.0 | +15.3 |
| GBR | 14.0% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 14.4% | +10.1 | +9.1 |
| JPN | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | +22.5 | +20.2 |
| AUS | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | +12.0 | +10.8 |
| CAN | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | +12.0 | +10.8 |
| CHE | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | +22.6 | +20.3 |
| NZL | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | +13.1 | +11.8 |

*Fiscal pressure = ΔOADR × 0.9pp GDP (from fiscal dominance expenditure-revenue asymmetry)*

*Power projection assumes power shifts inversely with relative fiscal pressure (2% per pp above mean)*